U.S. Troops Leave Afghanistan? That’s What Changes For India And Pakistan
K.Venkateshwar. Rao
9 SEPTEMBER 2019
9 SEPTEMBER 2019
The US entry into
Afghanistan that began as revenge for the 9/11 attacks, gradually transformed into a mission for
ensuring peace and democracy has now become an exercise to provide an
honourable exit to the US.
Afghanistan, which is
acknowledged as the “graveyard of empires,” holds the distinction of forcing
all global powers to back away at some point or the other. Earlier Russia burnt
its hands in Afghanistan, and now the US realizes its folly in getting
entangled in the Afghanistan imbroglio.
President Trump’s
desperation to get out of Afghanistan before the 2020 Presidential
elections is likely to
plunge the strife-torn nation into a “civil war” and adversely impact peace and
prosperity of the neighbouring Pakistan and India. Should the Taliban acquire a
commanding position in Afghanistan, they are likely to spread their tentacles
in neighbouring Pakistan and Kashmir, which would be bad news for Pakistan and
India.
The Taliban has
demonstrated its muscle power in Afghanistan through bold terror attacks in
Kabul and is likely to pose a severe problem to the trio of USA, Indian, and
Pakistan. With medieval barbarians like the Taliban in power, there is every
possibility of the Taliban joining hands with Pakistani militants to create safe havens for terrorists
targeting India. A destabilized and Talibanised Afghanistan will give rise to
jihadist violence in Jammu and Kashmir, and pose severe threats to Indian
investments — economic, political, diplomatic, and security — in Afghanistan.
It is worth mentioning that the Taliban takeover in 1996 had ousted India from
Kabul and only after the Taliban defeat in 2001, India was able to get its
foothold back in Kabul.
With Pakistan PM Imran
Khan and its army openly declaring to go to any extent to liberate Kashmir, the
Taliban, and its ally Al-Qaeda,
backed by Pakistan Army, is likely to increase terror activities in Jammu and
Kashmir. Muslim-majority Kashmir is highly prone to religious violence and is
home to anti-India protesters and armed extremist groups. The ideological
backing of a reinvigorated Taliban could provoke another insurgency in the
Muslim dominated Kashmir valley.
Taking advantage of
Trump’s desperation to exit from Afghanistan, Pakistan is likely to bargain for
a quid-pro-quo over Kashmir for Pakistan’s support to exit from Afghanistan.
The US is expected to be a meek spectator to Pakistan’s adventurism in Kashmir.
This will be a win-win situation for Pakistan with no pressure or sanctions on
Pakistan to refrain from infiltrating terrorists into Kashmir.
This narrative is
reflected on Pakistan’s side. The exclusive Pashtun organization, the Taliban’s ascendance to power, will
pose serious threats to Pakistan as well. Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan is
a breeding ground for extremist factions. Pakistani Pashtuns, of the tribal
areas bordering Afghanistan, owe allegiance to groups like the Tehriq-e-Taliban
and the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement, and these Pashtuns hardly recognize the
Durand Line, as an international border.
The Pashtuns, on both
sides of the disputed Durand Line, will revolt against any forceful Pakistani
military actions against their community. With the exit of American troops, the
Afghan Pashtuns are likely to join hands with their Pakistani Pashtun brethren,
living across the disputed border and going for the kill to have their pound of
flesh in the political power. Ultimately if Southern Afghanistan is
destabilized, Pakistan’s stability will face challenges from across the Durand
Line.
India is in a catch 22
situation. Taliban takeover in 1996 had ousted India from Kabul and India got
back in 2001 only after the Taliban defeat. India got a supportive government
in Afghanistan; as a result, India earned goodwill by its Afghan-driven
development programs and grew its stature in Afghanistan.
With the prospects of
the Taliban bouncing back to power, India might be at the receiving end of the Pakistani proxies.
Dealing with the Taliban’s means a no-win situation: the Taliban will hardly be
forthcoming, and India will lose friends and allies in Afghanistan.
But political
observers sound optimistic according to themevery endgame is only the beginning
of a new ‘Great Game’ in Afghanistan. The silver lining is allegiance, and alliances
keep shifting, interests keep getting re-defined, and equations keep changing
in Afghanistan. India will, therefore, always be a force to reckon with though
it might be a bench sitter or just an observer in the crowd for some time.
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