China Needs to Change Its Strategy on Hong Kong Before It Is Too Late
K. Venkateshwar Rao
8 NOVEMBER 2019
8 NOVEMBER 2019
What started as a
protest in June 2019 against an extradition bill that would have undermined
Hong Kong’s autonomy has now snowballed into a movement for greater freedom and
political reforms, thus challenging the legitimacy of the government. Despite
repeated warnings by the pro-China authorities, a majority of Hong Kong
citizens, including a growing number of school children are vowing to support
the uprising through thick and thin. This indicates that China is facing the
most sustained challenge since the revolution in Tiananmen Square, thirty years
ago.
The mass
demonstrations by “Hongkongers” (citizens of Hong Kong describe themselves as
“Hongkongers” rather than “Chinese”) are in bold defiance of the Chinese
authority, and a crackdown could prove quite costly for China. An open and
prosperous Hong Kong is vital for China, as Hong Kong’s wealth has filled the
coffers of China. Hong Kong is a massive financial hub, a source of foreign
capital, and a currency exchange market with a stock market larger than London.
A crackdown would destroy the wealth and Hong Kong’s global position in finance
that Beijing needs. Also, Hong Kong’s freedom and autonomy are global issues.
Moreover, bloodshed in Hong Kong would shatter China’s hopes of bridging the
rift with Taiwan.
These considerations
protect the protestors from Beijing’s wrath. The trade war with the United
States has further restricted China’s options and tilted the balance in favour
of demonstrators. The movement has proved that powerful, authoritarian
governments can be forced to repeal draconian measures in the face of popular
mobilization.
China’s
dilemma
China is in a catch 22
situation with Hong Kong. Businesses, both foreign and domestic including China
and Hong Kong-based operations, have begun to explore opportunities outside
China. Any increased pressure from China would invite severe criticism
from the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. All three
have a profound economic and political interest in Hong Kong’s prosperity and
its exceptional freedom under China.
A military crackdown
could dent China’s international image as a “Responsible Great Power” and spark
further radicalization in Hong Kong. Hong Kong can become a symbol of
democratic resistance and spark similar movements in Taiwan. China wants a
defeated, obedient population in Hong Kong, not a rebel commune.
How Beijing will deal
with Hong Kong and Taiwan in Asia is a very pertinent question. Will economic
development hasten the movement’s decline and resolve all sorts of problems
that Hong Kong faces today? Hundreds of thousands of protesters who are now
demanding greater autonomy will continue their protests, causing further
economic and political disruption. The announcement of recession might further
fuel dissatisfaction and take violent shape and turn Hong Kong from an economic
paradise to a nightmare for business establishments.
On the other hand, if
brute force is used, the consequences could be catastrophic. The protestors
know this too. This is why, despite Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam’s
repeal of the extradition law, they will continue to provoke and test the
nerves of Beijing. The warning by the Communist Party officials not to “play
with fire” or “mistake restraint for weakness” reflects Beijing’s ways of
settling dissent.
The pro-democracy
agitation poses a severe challenge to China’s rule. Both protestors and China
through its proxies in Hong Kong are standing firm on their grounds. If China
doesn’t act swiftly to calm down the agitation, the protests might culminate in
either a similar revolt like the Middle East faced that unseated the
governments in Egypt and Libya or result in a similar massacre that happened in
Tiananmen Square. Will China change its strategy and adopt a pro-democratic
stance in Hong Kong is a million-dollar question. And the Hong Kong protestors
along with the world are eagerly waiting to know China’s answer to this
question. China Needs to Change Its Strategy on Hong Kong Before It Is Too Late
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