Can a War Bogey Consolidate Imran Khan’s Premiership in Pakistan? POLITICS / K.Venkateshwar. Rao
Pakistan’s economy is
on the brink of collapse, and Prime Minister Imran Khan is facing immense
pressure from the opposition parties to bail out Pakistan from the precarious
situation. With outstanding debt of more than $85 billion and the annual
inflation rate at 11.63 percent in August, 2019 (the highest inflation rate since
May, 2012), Pakistan is in dire straits with growing pressure from the people
to relieve them from skyrocketing prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages,
transport, clothing & footwear, furniture & household equipment, and
miscellaneous goods & services.
Against the backdrop
of growing dissent among the masses, the abrogation of article 370 in Kashmir
by the Narendra Modi-led government of India has come in like a shot in the arm
for Imran Khan. PM Khan is leveraging it to create a war bogey with India to divert
the attention of the people from the precarious economic condition.
Why
can Pakistan not wage war with India?
According to the World
Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $254 billion at the end
of 2018 as compared to India’s $2.84 trillion. The Indian economy was more than
11 times that of Pakistan’s economy in 2018. Growing fiscal balance has further
queered the pitch of Pakistan. According to a Bloomberg report, it is 8.9
percent of the GDP – reportedly the maximum in almost three decades.
Pakistan has a record
of borrowing money to carry itself on. The country’s outstanding debt is more
than $85 billion. It has taken loans from a large number of countries in the
Middle East and Western Europe. Its largest creditor is China. Pakistan has
also received considerable loans from several international institutions. In
May 2019, Pakistan approached the IMF for the 23rd time since its inception,
for a $6 billion bailout.
The IMF in its July
report said “Pakistan’s economy is at an important juncture. The legacy of
large fiscal deficits, loose monetary policy, misaligned economic policies, and
an overvalued exchange rate boosted consumption and short-term growth, but
steadily eroded macroeconomic buffers, increased public and external debt, and
depleted international reserves”.
With the cost of war
being extraordinarily high and prospects of sanctions looming over its links to
militants, Imran Khan has little option diplomatically or militarily, except
sabre-rattling over Kashmir.
According to defence
and political analysts, the economy is hindering Pakistan’s options. With
precarious economic conditions, their capacity to bear the cost of a
full-fledged conflict with India over Kashmir, whether conventional or via
insurgent networks, is ruled out.
Even Taliban leaders
of Afghanistan, who have long enjoyed Pakistan patronage, have turned their
backs on their ally. Taliban have renounced Pakistan’s attempt to link the
Afghanistan issue with Kashmir. The Taliban in a statement said, “Linking the issue
of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan will not help in improving the Afghanistan
crisis”. The statement said that the issue of Afghanistan is not related, nor
should Afghanistan be turned into the theatre of competition between other
countries.
Prime Minister Imran
Khan seems worried about the lack of options and the possibility of
international sanctions also appears to be weighing on Khan. The prime minister
told a group of journalists, “We are making a sincere effort to bring Pakistan
out of FATF,” referring to the Financial Action Task Force. The Paris-based
group that monitors terrorist financing will vote in October on whether
Pakistan has done enough to check militant networks at home.
Nearly broke and
facing unprecedented inflation and with only China siding with it, Imran Khan
appears to be running out of ideas over Kashmir and hence the sabre-rattling to
divert the attention of the masses. Can a War Bogey Consolidate Imran Khan’s Premiership in Pakistan?
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