Singapore Data-Driven Innovation Lab Claims 97% of COVID-19 Cases Will End by May 30
K. Venkateshwar Rao
4 MAY 2020
4 MAY 2020
Amidst the frightening figures of job losses and soaring number
of COVID-19 cases, the prediction of the end of the pandemic appears like a
light at the end of the tunnel.
Prediction of the End
of COVID-19
When more than one-third of the world’s population in lockdown
and the world still clueless about the proven origin of the virus and grappling
for development of a vaccine, researchers at the Data-Driven Innovation Lab of
the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) have come up with a
novel mathematical model to predict the end of the pandemic in different
countries. Based on the pattern of the spread of COVID-19 from China to the
rest of the world and it’s slowing down, the researchers have predicted end
dates for the coronavirus in 131 countries.
The model predicts the world will see a 97 percent decline by
May 30, climbing to 99 percent by June 17, and 100 percent by December 1. Italy
will see a 97 percent decline by May 9, a 99 percent decline by May 24, and a
100 percent drop by August 31. The Italian data seems to be in line with Italy
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s announcement of easing of coronavirus lockdown
measures from May 4.
The report states India will see a 97 percent decline by May 25,
a 99 percent drop by June 5, and a 100 percent reduction by August 3. This is
close to what the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) has also hinted.
Is the Data Credible?
The report states that on the basis of current data of the
pandemic and the knowledge of historical pandemic process patterns, it is
possible to predict the end dates of COVID-19. The report says “predictive
monitoring” approach is better because monitoring of likely future events
related to coronavirus encourages precautionary or proactive actions. This is
in contrast with the present monitoring process of reporting the actual number
of cases, recovery, and death every day, which prompts reactive and passive
policies and actions, such as locking down a city only when the number of
infections has gone up.
Making a Better Action
Plan for the Unexpected
Singapore researchers said that like other pandemics,
coronavirus follows a life cycle pattern from the outbreak to the acceleration
phase, inflection point, deceleration phase, and the ultimate stop or end.
However, life cycles of any pandemic differ across various countries, so at a
specific point in time, different countries might be in different phases of the
life cycle. The report states that a particular country can chalk out and
implement a judicious plan based on the knowledge of the pandemic life cycle.
The report claims also that the prediction for Italy and other
countries is expected to be more accurate that have passed their inflection
points and are near ending phases of their present curves because it is based
on data covering much more diverse phases of the life cycle.
However, the report cautions that although prediction based on
science and data is objective, it is uncertain by nature. The model, data, and
prediction are insufficient and inaccurate to fully represent the multifaceted,
evolving, and varied realities of our world. So, too much optimism based on
predicted end dates is dangerous, as it may lead to complacency and loosening
of disciplines, which could result in the turnaround of the virus and infection
and that must be avoided at all costs.
The model states that as the world is connected, monitoring and
control of one country must be coupled with the monitoring and control of other
countries. Early relaxation of social distancing and lockdown in the United
States and other nations might increase infection rates and thus delay the
ending as predicted now.
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